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Introduction

The first set of Disney’s new collectible card game, Lorcana, dropped in US hobby stores on August 18, 2023 and at big box retail stores (and internationally) on September 1, 2023.

Produced in collaboration with German game company Ravensburger, Disney has lofty ambitions for its first foray into trading cards, with the ultimate goal of competing with the likes of Pokemon and Magic: The Gathering at the top of the TCG world.

We’re just under a month into its official launch and it’s safe to say that things are off to a good start — so good, in fact, that Ravensburger had already announced a reprint of its first set, “The First Chapter”, before it had even hit the shelves at big box retailers.

As of this writing, prior to an expected wave of first print re-stocks in October, Lorcana product is nigh impossible to find in stores. Booster packs are going for well over 2x MSRP on the secondary market, while the rarest cards are already selling for hundreds. At the very least, then, it would appear that Lorcana probably won’t just be a flash in the pan.

On the surface, this ostensible popularity seems like a good thing for speculators (which, if you’re reading this article, I imagine you might be). After all, a collectible needs, first and foremost, to be desired and in demand.

But how desirable is it, really? How much of Lorcana’s current “popularity” is organic interest in the game versus speculative interest on its potential as an “investable” asset?

If the cat wasn’t already out of the bag before the covid-era Pokemon card boom, it certainly is now: collectible cards are big money and everyone knows it. And it’s precisely because of this that I don’t think the Elsa Enchanted Rare will become the next 1st edition Charizard. Let’s break it down.

Everyone’s hoarding product & keeping cards in mint condition

The number one reason vintage Pokemon (or MTG or Yu-Gi-Oh!) cards are so valuable right now is because (almost) no one knew that they were going to be. With Lorcana, on the other hand, almost everyone is hoping that they will be.

In 1999, the Pokemon Trading Card Game was just that: cards that kids collected, traded and played with on the schoolyard. Boxes and packs were bought to be ripped, not tucked away as an investment. And if penny sleeves and toploaders existed back then, kids collecting Pokemon cards surely weren’t using them. As a result, 24 years later, vintage sealed product and near mint condition vintage Pokemon cards are exceedingly rare — and that’s what drives their value.

This won’t be the case with Lorcana. A good chunk of the people buying out Lorcana product in stores right now are would-be investors and speculators — people hoarding boxes and/or ripping them and keeping the cards in unplayed, mint condition in anticipation of their potential future value. While hype and FOMO are driving up prices on the secondary market right now, the supply of sealed product and mint condition cards will simply be too high, even years or decades down the line, for Lorcana to experience the kind of price growth we’ve seen with vintage Pokemon.

“But what about the first edition print?” you might ask. Surely, the initial release print run will be limited enough to the point that it’ll still be super rare in the future even with all the people hoarding product… right? Well…

The Q1 2024 reprint won’t be differentiated from the first edition print

That’s right, Ravensburger has confirmed that the upcoming mass reprint in Q1 2024 will not be differentiated from the initial first edition print.

To harken back to Pokemon, recall that the first print of Pokemon Base Set was marked by a 1st edition stamp. To meet subsequent demand, The Pokemon Company printed “Shadowless” and “Unlimited” versions of Base Set. Neither Base Set reprints — and Unlimited in particular — fetch anywhere close to 1st edition cards due to their relative abundance.

In essence, then, Lorcana’s entire First Chapter print run will be analagous to Pokemon’s Base Set Unlimited print run. In other words, those cards will simply never be that scarce.

The game itself needs to thrive before there can be a secondary market

The decision to forego print run differentiation in the First Chapter is indicative of where Ravensburger’s priorities lie: promoting the growth of their actual game, getting cards into the hands of actual players, and deterring scalpers and speculators.

While there’s no doubt that a thriving secondary market will eventually pay dividends for Ravensburger, the long-term sustainability of such a market rests on the foundation of a solid player base. That is, the game itself needs to succeed first.

As such, hoarding product right now is something of a catch-22 for speculators. By making it more difficult for players get their hands on the cards, investors are stunting the viability and success of Lorcana itself (just think of all the people who might have wanted to try the game but were forced to move on because they couldn’t find product at a reasonable price). Ravensburger announced an undifferentiated reprint precisely to combat scalpers/speculators and ensure that the game does succeed. In some respects, then, it would appear that speculators inadvertently tanked the potential of their own investment by hoarding it. Whoops.

Disney properties just don’t have the raw appeal necessary to spark a Pokemon-esque craze

As a 90’s kid who grew up on both Pokemon and Disney, I can say with confidence that Disney properties — while iconic in their own right — simply cannot hold a candle to Pokemon, both in terms of raw appeal and nostalgia. You had to be there on the playground to understand just how pervasive the Pokemon craze was (and, apparently, still is).

Sure, that may be anecdotal, but the numbers back it up: there’s a reason that Pokemon is by leaps and bounds the highest-grossing media franchise of all time. From video games to anime to (of course) the TCG, there was truly something for everyone. It was a cultural phenomenon like no other. Combined with the fact that the inherent concept of the franchise itself (“gotta catch ‘em all”) is conducive to collectibility, it’s no surprise that the primary market for vintage Pokemon cards are nostalgia-driven 20- and 30-somethings.

I don’t think the same can be said for Disney. Kids don’t care about Mickey Mouse the same way they care about Pikachu. Some Disney movies resonate with some kids but not for others, with no underlying theme tying them all together like there is for Pokemon (i.e., catching ‘em all). I certainly don’t see Lorcana cards taking over recess like Pokemon did (and still does). Heck, I don’t know if kids these days are even growing up on Disney classics like The Lion King or Aladdin; if there’s no sentimental value attached to the characters on Lorcana cards, how in-demand will these cards really be?

Can D23 Expo cards be the exception?

With all that being said, there is a set of 7 Lorcana cards that I think may well buck the trend of poor investability.

These are the D23 Expo cards, a very limited set of promo cards that were made exclusively available to attendees of D23 Expo, a Disney convention at the Anaheim Convention Center, California in 2022.

Though mechanistically and artistically the same as their counterpart cards that were later released in The First Chapter, D23 Expo cards are stamped with both a 1st edition mark and a D23 Expo logo. All but one (Mickey Mouse #1) also feature a special foil finish.

These limited cards are already going for ridiculous amounts on eBay, with the most valuable — Elsa #3 — last selling for $7,000 (as of this writing).

These promo cards certainly have scarcity going for it. But does Lorcana have the staying power for them to continue to appreciate it? Only time will tell.

Final thoughts

We are still in the very early chapters (one could even say the First) in the history of Lorcana. Whatever the future has in store for it, Disney’s first TCG is, at the very least, one to keep an eye out on.

What are your thoughts? Let me know in the comment section below.

Featured image courtesy of PAN XIAOZHEN via Unsplash (licensed under the Unsplash license)